The Hooked on Phonics Obama Administration’s plan to eliminate ISIL is like playing Pick Up Sticks. With a bulldozer. And each stick is dynamite. Plus parts of that bulldozer are wack.
Dig those odds? Bet on.
No one doubts the level of chaos in Syria at the moment, but the component connectivity of this chaos makes bombing – an ironically one-note tactic from the country that gave us the Marshall Plan – a myopically dumb idea.
And don’t expect alternative brilliance from Speaker John Boehner, who threw a slight criticism at the President for exposing The Strategy on prime time television to the enemy this week—as if US air strikes, a ground war using other countries’ troops, counterintelligence and humanitarian activities hang in the upper thermosphere of esoteric knowledge. (Laughing) Let’s just say I put my desire in the prayer box for Number 44 and his second-in-command to stay alive through January 20, 2017…
Let’s break down a few pieces of the plan to illustrate why it’s silly.
Providing military cover for the Iraqi government to get its act together is not a new idea; (laughing) we called it the Troop Surge last decade! There was no reason to believe Iraq felt motivated to develop a political solution which would make America happy back then, and I have no confidence that we will see such a solution coming from Iraq today. The latter part is a different and longer story.
A Syrian military campaign is an even sillier idea. It’s not like we’re witnessing a simple war between ISIL and Syria – and I’ll remind you that the US wants to overthrow the latter’s government while taking the fight to ISIL – this war is a free-for-all between Syria, ISIL, al-Qaeda, other jihadist organizations, a countless number of armed militia groups, and whatever handful of ineffective so-called good rebels which remain.
So what will America do? Bomb ISIL to Syria’s East, but leave al-Qaeda – America’s other mortal enemy – on Syria’s West to fight the Syrian government, free of ISIL competition? In other words, is Obama saying that he will bypass the relatively moderate jihadists who want to overthrow the Syrian government but who happens to be planning and praying for America’s fiery death, in favor of bombing extreme jihadists who want to overthrow the Syrian government but who also happens to be planning and praying for America’s fiery death?
Here’s another interesting stick in the pile—Agence France-Presse is reporting that ISIL has struck a deal with a few “moderate” rebel groups to not fight each other and collectively focus on overthrowing Assad. This highlights a point I’ve been making for a while: the US can’t trust these rebels. Besides, after you account for the rebel groups that have been saturated with jihadists, there aren’t many good rebels left to work with.
And what about the hundreds of militia groups fighting in Syria, whose known ideologies are a crap shoot?
Keeping in mind these extremists are operating from the checkbooks of wealthy Saudis and Qataris, and are being recruited fom outside Syria, you get the sense that the sticks America is attempting to pick are ever-flowing, and stacked sky-high.
Which brings up the crazy idea of a ground campaign that will not involve American boots on the ground. The Coalition of the Willing Redux is separated into five camps: parties so down with Syrian regime change where they won’t fight ISIL; parties so weak or distracted where their guns won’t make a difference; parties not willing to be bothered; the United States and its virtually meaningless number of partner assets from other countries. I predict that America will either be forced to commit ground troops, or will have to host a CIA job fair in every town very soon.
The US will need to figure out what’s a more dangerous situation to allow standing—Syria’s Assad regime, or an ISIL regime. The common sense answer will then lead the US to partner with Syria and Iran to stabilize the region. Russia may even help, under the right conditions. But America appears willing to die a jihadist’s fiery death before any such partnership happens.
Back to Hooked on Phonics. The Administration is not only playing Pickup Sticks, but it also can’t find the the address to where the game is being played. Read this sentence and then view this map to see what I mean.
See you at the prayer box…
song currently stuck in my head: “keep that same old feeling” – the crusaders