There’s a chance that an agreement can be reached between the US and Iran about the latter’s nuclear program, but any successful negotiation will obviously depend on how far-reaching the demands are.
And that’s why I’m afraid negotiations will ultimately fail.
Cast aside the conspiracy theorist’s argument for a moment about Iran’s place on the list of Middle East and North Africa nations to be invaded — even though much of that list has been punched already.
I don’t get the sense that President Obama is on the same page with his fellow American bureaucrats or his allies abroad.
Obama has signaled his willingness to allow Iran’s nuclear program to exist, as long as the Islamic Republic can prove that the program only serves civilian purposes and has no military dimension to it.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want Iran’s nuclear program to exist in any form whatsoever — not even to light a single home. I find that funny given how Israel has not only civilian nuclear power plants, but also ambiguous nuclear missiles. Well, Israel never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty either…
Plus, the Saudis aren’t down with a nuclear Iran.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s position is that the country is developing nuclear power under the provisions of the NPT, which Iran has signed, and that the program serves no military purpose. This is been recently validated by Rouhani’s boss — again, I should add — in the form of a fatwa. Developing nuclear energy is seen by the Iranians as a right, given the international statutes currently in place.
That’s why I keep asking myself, “How will these talks crash and burn?”
Israeli diplomats walking out during Rouhani’s speech to the UN is a start, but clearly not enough.
Netanyahu’s friends in Capitol Hill can create some friction, but I don’t think that will sufficiently deter matters.
Here are some possibilities:
- Netanyahu can drop a bombshell revelation during his upcoming UN speech.
- An international incident can occur in the near future that will implicate Iran as one of the catalysts behind the incident.
- US negotiating terms can be mysteriously expanded beyond the scope of nuclear power. (For example, a request for Iran to withdraw its support of Hezbollah, which may prompt the Iranians to respond with “How about YOUR support of terrorists in OUR country,” and matters can go downhill from there.)
Building trust between Americans and Iranians in the months ahead will prove to be difficult, but the conflicting agendas will present a bigger problem. Just watch…
song currently stuck in my head: “bossa bop” – bahama soul club
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