Iran War: The Receipts Are Tiring

I’ve been silent about the Iran war for good reason …

You haven’t seen much from this channel about the Iran war these days.

Given all I’ve written about Iran for more than a decade — and much of what was predicted is playing out today — I asked myself “What can I say that I haven’t already said?”

Recap — a.k.a. the receipts

I mentioned how US generals  war-gamed an Iran conflict years ago and left them with a clear understanding of how this war could lead to a bad day — and many American casualties. This explains why every American President besides Trump brushed off Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s serial pleas to start a war with the Islamic Republic.

I warned years ago the American language of pure war will not stop Iran. If Iran’s top priority is regime survival, then constant threats of regime change can push its leaders toward more dangerous choices.

I later wrote that American pressure like this will make matters worse and give Iran more reasons to think about developing a nuclear deterrence.

I also wrote about how Iran has thousands of missiles pointed at all of America’s regional military bases and commercial interests — along with  those of its allies. The US military knew this years ago:

Lacking a modern air force, Iran has embraced ballistic missiles as a long-range strike capability to dissuade its adversaries from attacking Iran.  Iran also has the largest missile force in the Middle East, with substantial inventory of close-range ballistic missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles that can strike targets throughout the region as far as 2,000 kilometers away.  Iran will deploy an increasing number of more accurate and lethal theater ballistic missiles, improve its existing missile inventory and also field new land attack cruise missiles.  Iran’s developments of its space launch vehicle program could also serve as the test bed for the development of intercontinental ballistic missile technologies.

And I cited that Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities and leverage over the Strait of Hormuz could lead to high oil prices and a global depression.

And how most experts agree that Iran is not a nation of fanatics. The report link I embedded back then is broken so here’s an updated source.

I talked about the petro lust, and how Netanyahu’s strategy has long depended on American power — and the risk of losing American lives.

I even sketched a decades-long timeline, starting from the mid-20th century, that detailed how much of America’s diplomatic and military choices helped to create the Iran we now see.

So, what can I say about today’s events that’s new?

There are just three things we haven’t yet seen, thank goodness: an imploded economy, Iran mass-targeting soldiers and civilians, and sunken American warships.

That’s the part — and the chance this situation can be more gruesome — keeps me from making a pure I-told-you-so post.

The takeaway

I’m not here to position receipts as prizes for being right. 

I’ve always made these warnings because I don’t like the outcome of dead soldiers, displaced and terrified families, exploding ships, high fuel prices, and civilians who never voted for any part of what we’re seing today.

And perhaps this is where my next piece about Iran  should go … 

song currently stuck in my head: “undone” – kontravoid